Never before have we been on the brink of a global crisis.
The precarious and very fragile balances in the Middle East are at stake on the decisions that the United States and Iran will make in the next few hours – the darkest in recent years.
We are faced with the dangerous escalation of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
A few hours after President Joe Biden greeted the bodies of the three US soldiers, killed a week ago in Jordan by an attack by the Iraqi Islamic Resistance, the United States bombed Syria and Iraq.
Washington has started a harsh retaliation, hitting 85 targets in seven locations in the two countries, unloading as many as 125 bombs on the positions of the pro-Iranian militias or directly of the Revolutionary Guards of Iran, and the retaliations are not destined to end.
In the midst of the election campaign, due to the criticism leveled at the president for being incapable of stopping the Houthis, Biden decided to engage in a test of strength, dismantling the infrastructures – commands, bomb depots – in the regions, sending a very specific message to the Iran.
According to analysts, the operation was calibrated to reduce casualties, civilians and Iranian dignitaries, yet the counting of dead and wounded in Iraq has only just begun.
The White House then specified that there will be other US raids in the coming days.
Statements that have worried many analysts, who fear that a chain reaction could be triggered, such as to bring the balance in the Middle East to breaking point.
And while the eyes of the media are turned to the Islamic Republic and its ayatollah, the allied countries are starting to align on the geopolitical chessboard.
Here are the alliances and alignments in the Middle East.
read also What is the Middle East, which countries are part of it and why it is often at war War deployments in the Middle East, what are the alliances? After the bombings, the United States issues a warning to Iran: if Tehran attacks Washington, the next US attacks will be directed against the Islamic Republic.
In fact, for at least two days, Iranian anti-aircraft batteries have been on alert, but the theocratic regime has always considered its moves, trying to avoid a direct clash with the United States, as demonstrated in 2020, when General Soleimani was killed , the leader of the Qods brigades who forged the network of Shiite formations in the Middle East: the retaliation occurred five days later.
Now, however, the ayatollahs will have to be even more cautious, as a regional – if not global – escalation depends on this.
In fact, with the war that broke out in Palestine and the following tensions in the region, never before has the Middle East scene been close to a crisis divided in two: On the one hand we find Iran which over the years has intertwined its relations with Lebanon, Syria, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Iraq.
It is no coincidence that the leaders of the Pasdaran present in Syria and Iraq have abandoned their command and some leaders of the local militias have taken refuge in Tehran.
But not only has there been a rapprochement between Iran and Russia, with Putin condemning the US attack.
And in the background, in silence, China is also moving its pawns.
On the other side, the United States stands out on the front line with Israel, but Washington can count on the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan – it is precisely from these countries that the United States has launched its raids, exposing them to the risk of Iranian retaliation.
Not to mention the alliance with Western countries, with a Europe increasingly dependent on America.
Middle East, risk of total war: the responsibilities of the United States and Iran.
It is useless to deny regional security in the Middle East – and worldwide larger scale – is in jeopardy.
And the responsibilities are not to be attributed only to one of the parties.
In fact, if according to some Western commentators the outbreak of a world war is based on Iran's will, it is enough to change point of view to realize that this is not the case: and that the war is not waged alone but – at least – by two .
“We are not looking for conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else on the planet.” These were the words of President Joe Biden.
Words that lose their effectiveness and credibility, given that the American armed forces find themselves engaged in attack missions from the Indian Ocean, striking Yemen, Syria and Iraq and above all – as Giorgia Bonamoneta writes in one of her articles – a grab would be enough United States position on the Palestinian genocide to lower the level of tension "and be the first to write the words 'end' to the ongoing humanitarian tragedy".
Meanwhile, Iran benefits from the US show of strength, strengthening and concretizing the propaganda speeches that want the United States to be Israel's only ally.
The two countries are engaging in a tug of war that could lead to real escalation.
What is certain is that the balance is increasingly precarious and the Middle East seems on the verge of exploding, dragging the West with it.
2024 seems to bring with it a less than rosy future.
read also What does Iran want? The outbreak of a world war may depend on his intentions
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