Russia’s (Re)newed Influence in Europe: The Gas Factor

Europe’s Energy Dependency on Russia

Europe is still heavily reliant on Russia for gas supplies, despite efforts to diversify its sources of energy.
Recent data shows that in May, gas imports from Russia to Europe surpassed those from the United States for the first time in almost two years.
This highlights the ongoing challenges the continent faces in reducing its dependence on Russian gas.

Many Eastern European countries remain fully dependent on imports from the Kremlin, according to the consultancy firm ICIS.
This energy challenge continues to be one of the most significant and complex issues for Europe.
The question remains: will the connection with Russia be necessary indefinitely?

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian gas supplies plummeted.
In contrast, Europe increased its imports of LNG, with the United States becoming the main gas supplier to the continent by September 2022, now representing about a fifth of Europe’s gas supply.

In May, Russian gas and LNG accounted for 15% of Europe’s total supply, while U.S.
LNG only represented 14%, the lowest level since August 2022.
Several specific factors influenced gas supplies in May, such as the closure of a major U.S.
LNG export facility.
Russia redirected more gas through Turkey before scheduled maintenance in June.
Notably, Russia stopped sending gas through pipelines to Northwestern Europe but continues to do so via Ukraine and Turkey.

Another concern arises as a key contract between Kiev and Moscow for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe expires at the end of the year.
Some countries, like Austria, still rely on this route.
With Kiev unwilling to renew the agreement, questions loom about replacing these gas supplies ahead of winter.

Forecasts suggest a further decrease in Russian gas imports as U.S.
LNG production ramps up, and Russia focuses more on gas exports to Asia.
Russia’s ability to maintain its current share in Europe is limited, especially with growing winter demand, according to Tom Marzec-Manser, gas analysis lead at ICIS.

While European gas demand is relatively weak due to record-high stock levels for this time of year, the continent remains susceptible to fluctuations in the global gas market.
The energy landscape continues to evolve, highlighting the ongoing challenge of balancing energy security with diversification.