Political Surveys: M5s and Salvini Plummet, Pd Soars, Renzi and Calenda at Risk

Latest Political Poll Shows Changes in Italian Political Landscape

The latest political survey conducted by Swg and released on May 20th by Tg La7 reveals interesting trends in the Italian political scene.
The survey indicates positive outcomes for leaders such as Giorgia Meloni and Elly Schlein, who were set to face off in a televised debate hosted by Bruno Vespa before it was cancelled due to restrictions imposed by Agcom in the name of fair competition.

Key Findings of the Survey

One of the most significant shifts highlighted in the survey is the notable improvement of the Democratic Party, now polling well above the 20% threshold, which is a crucial target for Elly Schlein in the upcoming European elections in June.
Additionally, Fratelli d’Italia emerges as the leading party in the country, with Giorgia Meloni aiming for a landslide victory, potentially setting the stage for a constitutional referendum on the premiership.

Forza Italia also sees an improvement in the survey, regaining ground ahead of Lega, which does not seem to benefit significantly from the candidacy of General Roberto Vannacci in the European elections.
Matteo Salvini, at risk of losing leadership within Lega in the event of a poor performance, opted not to run personally, in contrast to five years ago when Lega achieved a record-breaking 34% in the European elections.

The survey also holds implications for smaller parties aiming to surpass the 4% national threshold in the European elections.
Notably, positive outcomes seem to favor Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra, showing growth alongside Pace Terra Dignità, a theoretically rival list.
However, the threshold still appears challenging for Michele Santoro’s party.

Challenges for Other Parties

On the flip side, the survey indicates a decline for Stati Uniti d’Europa, Matteo Renzi’s brainchild resulting from the merger of Italia Viva and +Europa, moving dangerously close to the critical threshold.
A similar trend is observed for Carlo Calenda, who will run independently in the European elections, solely relying on the forces of Azione.

Furthermore, the survey marks the debut of Alternativa Popolare, led by Stefano Bandecchi, the current mayor of Terni, approaching the 1% threshold.
Conversely, the negative trend attributed to Libertà seems to dampen the prospects of the coalition reaching the 4% mark, signaling challenging times ahead.