Political Polls Show Struggles for Salvini and Calenda, Strong Performance for PD and M5S, Meloni Maintains Lead

Political Landscape Analysis: Swg’s Latest Survey Insights

The recent political survey conducted by Swg, released on September 16 by Tg La7 hosted by Enrico Mentana, comes on the heels of serious legal troubles for Matteo Salvini.
The Palermo Prosecutor’s Office has requested a six-year prison sentence for the former Interior Minister due to the Open Arms trial, where he is accused of kidnapping and neglecting public office duties.

Interestingly, this legal predicament seems to have negatively impacted the Lega party.
Historically, Salvini has leveraged crises to rally his supporters and boost his voter appeal.
However, this time the party appears to be in a steady decline, losing ground to Fratelli d’Italia, which comfortably exceeds the psychological benchmark of 30%.

The Rise of Giorgia Meloni

Giorgia Meloni seems to have grown stronger despite various controversies surrounding her government and personal life.
She is gearing up for a challenging autumn, rife with uncertainties regarding the upcoming Budget Law.

Forza Italia and the Center-Right Dynamics

Within the center-right arena, Forza Italia is experiencing a slight dip.
Nevertheless, the party retains an edge over the Lega, underscoring internal competition within the majority coalition.

Center-Left’s Ambitions and Upcoming Elections

The Swg survey indicates a resurgence for the Democratic Party (PD), ready to challenge Meloni in the upcoming regional elections between October and November, particularly in Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, and Umbria.
The center-left dreams of a clean sweep, which could destabilize the government, though a two-to-one victory would suffice for the PD.

Despite Beppe Grillo’s internal rifts, the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) has solidified its alliance with the PD heading into the regional elections, recovering from previous electoral setbacks.

Challenges for Minor Parties

In the realm of lesser parties, Carlo Calenda faces a perilous situation, teetering on the brink of the 3% threshold following the departure of Enrico Costa back to Forza Italia.
Meanwhile, +Europa and Italia Viva remain stable, though Matteo Renzi’s overtures to the center-left have been met with firm rejection from the M5S and internal turmoil within the PD.
Renzi himself, according to the latest survey, is also below the critical 3% mark.