Political Polls, Meloni Surges Over 30%: PD and Forza Italia in Decline, M5s Holding Ground

Political Landscape in Europe

The latest Swg political survey, revealed on July 22 by Tg La7 hosted by Enrico Mentana, follows the vote in Strasbourg that confirmed Ursula von der Leyen with a large majority composed of the Popular Party, Socialists, Liberals, Greens, and part of the Conservatives, as the head of the European Commission.

Shifting Political Alliances

According to the poll percentages, Giorgia Meloni’s choice not to vote for von der Leyen seems to have paid off in terms of popular support: Fratelli d’Italia, in fact, is experiencing a significant surge and is now above the psychological threshold of 30%.
Conversely, Forza Italia, a historical pillar of the European People’s Party, voted decisively for the German president, causing a drop of almost half a percentage point in the polls, all in favor of Meloni.

Challenges and Strategies

Signs of recovery are emerging from the League, which, thanks to the misstep of Forza Italia, would now be the second force within the government coalition: a meager consolation for Matteo Salvini, who spared no harsh criticisms of Ursula von der Leyen in Europe.
While the poll indicated a healthy and slightly growing center-right in voting intentions compared to the previous week, outside national borders, Salvini and, especially, Meloni’s decision not to vote confidence in von der Leyen could have significant political costs.

Opposition and Challenges

The so-called “Ursula effect” is also noticeable in the Swg political survey concerning opposition parties.
The Democratic Party, which voted in favor of the president’s re-election, would be declining compared to the previous week.
The same goes for the Green-Left Alliance, although the decline would be minimal.
The Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, seems to be on a slow rise in voting intentions in Europe after the disappointing results of the European elections.

Upcoming Elections and Strategies

Italy Viva, led by Matteo Renzi, is on the rise in the survey, with Renzi aiming for a moderate stance within the center-left coalition, even considering a potential alliance with the 5 Stelle.
However, Renzi faces challenges from within his party, especially from Luigi Marattin, who advocates for a new party with moderates.
The upcoming National Assembly will test the leadership dynamics within Italy Viva.