Why the far right will win the 2024 European elections and what will happen next

Another – great – rise of anti-Europe parties is expected during the 2024 European elections.
If this were really the case, the European Parliament will have to say goodbye to its tiring balance, while the pillars of the EU agenda crumble, especially those linked to actions and interventions to protect the climate.
Analyzing the political polls of the 27 member states, together with the electoral performance of the parties during the last European elections, it turns out that in 9 countries the radical right will be the most voted.
We are talking about countries like Italy, France, Austria, Poland.
For the first time, a right-wing majority in the European Parliament could be about to emerge, made up of the far right, conservatives and Christian Democrats, especially if in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden the anti-EU parties are among the three most voted .
The analysis is contained in a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) by political scientists Simon Hix and Kevin Cunningham (the original version is available here).
What happens if the far right wins in the 2024 European elections According to its authors, such evidence should be “a wake-up call for European politicians about what is at stake”, underlining how the consequences of the vote are far-reaching.
Especially if the Green Deal were to be blocked, preferring a harder line, for example, in the management of migratory flows and aid to Ukraine.
A European Parliament with a far-right majority could then have an impact on internal governmental dynamics in member countries, strengthening those governments that "try to limit the influence of the EU from within" – primarily the Italian one, also in Sweden, Slovakia , Hungary and the Netherlands, in the event that Geert Wilders manages to lead the new government.
This context, combined with the possibility that Donald Trump will regain office as president in the 2024 US elections, according to experts could lead to a rejection of "strategic interdependence and international partnerships in defense of European interests and values".
read also European elections 2024, when do you vote in Italy? Date, electoral law and polls More specifically, the authors predict that the right-wing coalition destined to emerge after the elections could carry out “anti-climate political action” capable of blocking the EU's green transition.
Recent environmentally-related EU bills, such as the Nature Restoration Act adopted last July, have passed by a handful of votes in the current Parliament, due to opposition from right-wing groups.
Such legislation would be destined to collapse in a Parliament where the far right is even stronger.
Why anti-Europe parties can win the 2024 European elections Looking at the results of the latest political polls we notice how the main political groups in the EU Parliament – the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the centrist Renew Europe (RE) and the Greens (G/EFA) – are destined to lose MPs.
The most radical groups, such as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), will be the main winners according to polls.
The possibility that these will enter a majority coalition, for the first time, is becoming increasingly concrete.
The radical right will have more say than ever, although it remains likely that the EPP will remain the largest group, thus maintaining its power to set the agenda and choose the next president of the European Commission.
Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, again according to the polls, should win 27 seats, while Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National 25 seats.
The Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) is expected to double its total number of deputies to six, while in Germany the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will double its representation to 19.
Please note that the European Parliament is made up of 705 members , with seats being distributed according to the population of each member state.
Eurosceptic populist parties will be the most voted in: Italy, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia.
Still according to projections, however, they should be among the second and third most voted in: Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden.
As a result, the report predicts that the far-right parliamentary group Identity and Democracy (ID) will gain up to 40 more seats, for a total of 98, making it the third largest political force in the European Parliament and opening up the possibility of a “populist right” coalition between EPP, ECR, and ID, representing 49% of deputies in the new Parliament.
read also European elections, how many parliamentarians do Italy and other countries elect? The MAP Polls and analysis models suggest that the number of MEPs of the current “centre-left” coalition (S&D, G/ALE and Left) will fall from 36% to 33% of the total, while the main coalition of “ centre-right” (PPE, RE and ECR) will see its presence drop from 49 to 48%.
Then there is the Hungary issue.
If Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's currently unregistered Fidesz party wins 14 seats, it could become the third largest group by joining the national conservative ECR party.
If this were the case, ECR and ID would together have almost 25% of the deputies, more than the EPP and S&D.
Projections see the percentage of seats in the coalition of traditional parties (EPP, S&D and RE) falling from 60% to 54%.