What If Trump Wins the 2024 US Elections?
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What Happens If Trump Wins the 2024 USA Elections?
Analyzing all possible scenarios, from the impact on financial markets to anticipated changes in domestic and international policy.
As the 2024 elections approach, a mere two weeks away, American voters will decide on their next president on November 5.
Trump emphasizes immigration, hoping to leverage it as a key issue against his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
Amid rising inflation and interest rates during Biden’s presidency, he promises to restore the economy similar to his first term.
Potential Outcomes
In the case of a Trump victory, potential outcomes can be outlined as follows:
1) Financial Markets
Trump’s return may trigger a fresh cycle of trade wars.
Policies favoring a weaker dollar to boost exports could backfire if inflation rises and the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, inadvertently strengthening the dollar.
Consequently, while energy sectors linked to fossil fuels may thrive due to deregulation, global economic slowdowns could drive oil prices down.
Markets have already begun to price in higher inflation anticipating a Trump win, affecting Treasury yields.
2) Immigration
Trump pledges to complete border wall construction after Biden halted the project.
With over 11 million undocumented migrants in the U.S., plans for mass deportation could disrupt the economy and exacerbate inflation.
Legal challenges on citizenship rights for children of undocumented immigrants are anticipated.
3) Economy and Trade
Trump aims to eliminate restrictions on fossil fuel production to control inflation while proposing significant tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China.
However, most economists warn that such tariffs would ultimately burden American consumers and heighten inflation.
4) Energy and Environment
His energy policy will prioritize fossil fuels, seeking to dismantle Biden’s climate initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act.
This may include a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, impacting clean energy projects.
5) Education and Society
He proposes dismantling the federal education department, allowing states to manage education independently, with a focus on patriotism rather than politically charged content.
6) Justice
Trump indicates he would seek to overturn sentences related to the January 6 Capitol riot and impose severe penalties for child trafficking, aligning with his law-and-order campaign rhetoric.
7) Abortion and IVF
Trump supports abortion bans late in pregnancy but allows exceptions for rape or incest.
He plans to promote IVF funding at state levels while offering vague details on implementation.
8) Foreign Policy
His approach to Ukraine aims for an immediate ceasefire, leveraging personal negotiation tactics with global leaders.
Additionally, he seeks to reassess U.S.
financial commitments to NATO and other ally nations.
9) Federal Government
Trump’s agenda includes restructuring federal employment and removing officials he views as part of the ‘Deep State.’ He advocates relocating up to 100,000 government roles outside of Washington.
Conclusion
A Trump victory would present a shift back to assertive economic intervention and strict immigration stances.
The potential implications extend beyond domestic policies, influencing international relations and global governance frameworks.
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