With less than six months until the presidential elections, the question of who will win in 2024 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is a topic of great interest.
This question not only concerns the United States but also resonates among world leaders due to the inevitable impact the outcome will have globally.
Attention is now focused on the 2024 US election polls, as the upcoming presidential race, much like the one in 2020, appears to be characterized by balance and uncertainty.
Following the primaries, the main contenders are expected to once again be Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with the roles reversed this time: the Democrat is now in the White House, while the tycoon is seeking a comeback.
However, a wildcard in the race could be Robert Kennedy Jr., a potential third candidate whose entry could disrupt the balance by drawing votes away from both Donald Trump and, especially, Joe Biden, given Kennedy’s long history with the Democratic party.
Current electoral polls show Trump slightly ahead of Biden, who seems to be gaining ground compared to previous months.
The former president is leading in most key swing states, which will play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.
As tradition dictates, numerous polls are being conducted in the United States in anticipation of the 2024 elections.
In addition to polls predicting the final outcome, there are also surveys focusing on primary elections and individual state contests.
The average of polls calculated by Real Clear Politics and updated as of May 20, shows Trump as the frontrunner with almost a one percentage point lead over Biden:
– Donald Trump: 46.6%
– Joe Biden: 45.7%
In the scenario of independent candidates joining the race, as projected by Real Clear Politics in a five-way contest for the White House, the advantage of Trump would increase, particularly with the presence of Kennedy Jr.:
– Donald Trump: 42.3%
– Joe Biden: 39.5%
– Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.: 9.6%
– Cornel West: 1.6%
– Jill Stein: 1.3%
When it comes to the battle for control of Congress, calculations from the specialized website 270towin.com indicate that Democrats are currently projected to secure 226 electoral votes compared to the Republicans’ 235.
To reach the crucial threshold of 270 delegates, the outcome of the 77 swing state seats across six states will likely be decisive.
In these pivotal states, Trump currently holds an advantage over Biden:
– Nevada
– Donald Trump: 48.0%
– Joe Biden: 41.8%
– Georgia
– Donald Trump: 49.0%
– Joe Biden: 44.4%
– Wisconsin
– Donald Trump: 47.9%
– Joe Biden: 47.3%
– Arizona
– Donald Trump: 49.0%
– Joe Biden: 43.8%
– Michigan
– Donald Trump: 46.0%
– Joe Biden: 45.2%
– Pennsylvania
– Donald Trump: 47.6%
– Joe Biden: 45.6%
In January 2024, Money.it conducted a non-scientific but indicative survey asking readers about their predictions for the 2024 US elections.
The results showed a clear preference, with 77% of respondents believing that Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.
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