The question on everyone’s mind in Emilia-Romagna is when the elections will be held.
Stefano Bonaccini, with an impressive 390,000 preferences in the European elections, has been elected to the European Parliament.
With his official election as a Member of the European Parliament, Bonaccini has resigned from his position as president, triggering the need for regional elections in Emilia-Romagna within five months according to the law.
Political parties in the region have long been working to identify the candidates for the presidency.
Decisions are expected to be made during the summer, with potential candidates’ names already circulating.
Initial electoral surveys are attempting to forecast the election outcome.
Currently, the date for the Emilia-Romagna 2024 regional elections has not been set.
It all hinges on when Stefano Bonaccini will be confirmed as a Member of the European Parliament, as this event will also mark his resignation as president.
The Region has recently modified the regulation, which previously required that, in the case of an early vote, regional elections in Emilia-Romagna should be held between April 15 and June 15.
Now, elections must be called within three months of the president’s resignation, followed by the standard two-month election campaign.
Hence, a maximum of five months could pass, with the likelihood of polling stations opening in the autumn; the most discussed date would be Sunday, October 27.
In contrast, the 2020 regional elections in Emilia-Romagna took place on January 26, causing polling stations to open a few months earlier than the natural expiration of the current legislature.
The regional elections in Emilia-Romagna will be conducted under the electoral law amended on July 23, 2014, used for the first time in the subsequent electoral round.
As customary for regional elections, the president will be directly elected.
There will be no runoff; the candidate who obtains even just one vote more than their opponents will be elected.
To ensure substantial governability in the Council, a majority prize will be awarded to the list or lists supporting the most voted candidate, entitling them to 27 seats out of 50.
In general, 40 councilors will be elected through a proportional method based on district lists, 9 through a majority system in individual districts, while the remaining seat will be reserved for the winning candidate.
Split voting will be possible for both a candidate for the President of the Regional Council and for one of the unaffiliated lists.
The threshold for representation will be 3% for unaffiliated lists and 5% for coalition lists.
Anticipated regional elections in Emilia-Romagna were somewhat expected even before the 2024 European elections, due to Stefano Bonaccini’s assured election.
Political parties have thus started working as the president’s candidacy for a seat in Brussels was formalized.
Currently, no official candidate has been announced for the 2024 Emilia-Romagna elections, considering that political forces are just recovering from the European and administrative elections.
Attention is particularly focused on the Democratic Party, where two names seem to stand out for the role of presidential candidate: Michele De Pascale, the current mayor of Ravenna, and Vincenzo Colla, regional councillor for Economic Development.
The possibility of primaries is not to be excluded.
Regarding coalitions, an alliance between the Democratic Party and the Green Left Alliance seems likely, but issues concerning the Five Star Movement, Action, and Italia Viva will need to be resolved; indications suggest that only the Renzi supporters might be left out in the end.
Decisions within the center-right are still pending, but unlike in the past, this time the choice of candidate should fall to Brothers of Italy, considering the party’s significant growth under Giorgia Meloni, even in Emilia-Romagna.
If the choice were to focus on a civic candidate, all paths seem to lead to Elena Ugolini, rector of the Malpighi High School in Bologna and former Undersecretary of Education during the Monti government.
Alternatively, the profile of Senator Marco Lisei from the Meloni group remains relevant.
At the end of June, Nomisma conducted the first opinion poll for the 2024 Emilia-Romagna regional elections with four candidates in the field:
Center-left – 47.5%
Center-right – 34.1%
Other candidate – 10.7%
Five Star Movement – 7.7%
A different scenario emerged with three candidates in the race for the 2024 regional elections, with an expanded center-left coalition including the Five Star Movement receiving fewer votes, ultimately benefiting a hypothetical third candidate:
Center-left + Five Star Movement – 47.1%
Center-right – 32.8%
Other candidate – 20.8%
Regarding party preferences, the poll indicated the following voting intentions for the regional elections:
Democratic Party – 24.2%
Brothers of Italy – 14.8%
Five Star Movement – 5.4%
Greens – 5.3%
League – 4.5%
Forza Italia – 4.4%
Action – 2.7%
Undecided – 18%
The Democratic Party would undoubtedly be the leading party in the region, with Brothers of Italy confirming its position as the leader of the center-right due to the significant downsizing of the League.
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