The French legislative elections of 2024 have left the nation without a clear winner after the first round of voting.
The upcoming runoff on the following Sunday will be crucial in determining whether a clear parliamentary majority will emerge from the ballot, or if inter-party agreements will be necessary.
As in the European elections, the Rassemblement National has once again emerged as the leading party in France.
It is followed by Nupes, a coalition including the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Greens, and the Communist Party, and then by Ensemble, led by Emmanuel Macron.
Here are the results of the French legislative elections 2024, with the number of elected deputies in the first round indicated in parentheses:
– Rassemblement National (right) – 33.15% (38)
– Nupes (center-left) – 28.14% (32)
– Ensemble (center) – 21.27% (2)
– Republicans (center-right) – 6.57% (1)
– NPA-Revolutionaries (far left) – 1.15%
– Regionalists (center) – 1.05%
– Reconquest (right) – 0.75%
– Ecologists (greens) – 0.57%
– Sovereignists (right) – 0.28%
– Radical Party (center) – 0.04%
– Others on the right – 3.66% (2)
– Others on the left – 1.53%
– Others in the center – 1.22%
– Others – 0.45%
– Others on the far right – 0.19% (1)
A total of 76 deputies were elected in the first round.
The French legislative election law follows a two-round majority system.
The country is divided into 577 single-member constituencies, and a parliamentary majority of 289 deputies is required.
If a candidate obtains an absolute majority of votes in the first round, they are elected directly to Parliament.
Otherwise, a second round is held, with all candidates who received at least 12.5% of the votes advancing.
The first round results of the 2024 French elections did not yield a clear winner, setting the stage for decisive runoff contests scheduled for the upcoming Sunday, July 7th.
To secure a parliamentary majority, a minimum of 289 parliamentarians need to be elected.
In constituencies where three candidates have qualified for the runoff, withdrawals are already being observed.
This involves the third-placed candidate from Nupes or Ensemble stepping back to increase the chances of preventing a Rassemblement National victory.
“Faced with the Rassemblement National,” declared Emmanuel Macron after the exit polls, “the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round.”
Simultaneously, the parties forming Nupes have announced the withdrawal of their candidates from runoffs in constituencies where they placed third, with Macron’s party confirming the same through a press release.
This united front against Marine Le Pen in France has drawn criticism from Matteo Salvini, a historic ally of the Rassemblement National leader.
Salvini harshly criticized Macron for calling for blocs against Rassemblement National in the runoff, likening the French President’s actions to any average Von der Leyen and attempting to oppose a change expressed by millions of French citizens in both Paris and Brussels.
The French electoral law, however, is clear, and the two-round system, as in presidential elections, will determine the color of the next government in France.
According to the Elabe institute, the Rassemblement National and its allies could secure between 255 and 295 seats, potentially surpassing the parliamentary majority threshold of 289 deputies.
Nupes is expected to gain between 120 and 140 seats, Ensemble between 90 and 125, and Republicans between 35 and 45.
Much of the outcome of the 2024 French elections will hinge on potential withdrawals leading up to the second round.
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