The attention is all focused on France, as the country is preparing for legislative elections that will take place on Sunday, June 30th, shortly after the European elections.
President Emmanuel Macron decided to hold these early elections after the remarkable success of Marine Le Pen’s party in the European elections.
Following the European elections, Macron, still in his position as President, dissolved the Parliament.
His party, Ensemble, along with other centrist forces, had been governing with a minority government.
In this setup, support from the Republicans was often necessary to gather enough votes for each decision.
The upcoming French legislative elections will determine the 577 members of Parliament through single-member constituencies, using a two-round majority voting system.
If no candidate receives an absolute majority in the first round, a second round will be held where the top candidates with at least 12.5% of the votes will compete.
After the elections, the majority party will propose a Prime Minister, who will then be appointed by the President.
This might lead to a scenario known as “cohabitation,” where the President and the Prime Minister are from different political backgrounds.
Predictions for the French elections in 2024 suggest a likely scenario of the Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, aiming to secure a majority in Parliament through an alliance with the Republicans.
This could lead to a situation where Macron might have to cohabit with Jordan Bardella, the rising star indicated by Le Pen as the potential Prime Minister.
In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, a poll conducted by Cluster17 on June 24th showed Rassemblement National in the lead, followed closely by the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), a center-left coalition.
Ensemble, Macron’s party, appeared to be trailing.
Another survey by Iflop on June 25th reinforced the lead of Rassemblement National, with the party Reconquête, led by writer Éric Zemmour, at a historic low.
The electoral system in France, with its two-round voting process, can lead to situations where a coalition may fail to elect its own members, despite obtaining a considerable share of the votes.
While Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party seems to be leading in the polls, it remains uncertain whether they will secure a parliamentary majority, possibly resulting in a political deadlock in Paris after the 2024 elections.
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