Political Polls: Mistakes and Horrors – Are European Elections Valid?

Political Polls Results of the 2024 European Elections

The political polls for the 2024 European elections did not perform well, with none of the hundreds of surveys conducted coming close to accuracy.
Exit polls and subsequent projections, however, fared better.

Before the ban on polling data dissemination, two glaring inaccuracies stand out.
The first concerns the 5 Star Movement, which was projected well above 15% in the polls but only achieved 9.98% in the actual elections.
The second relates to the Democratic Party, significantly underestimated by polling institutes, which indicated around 20% but secured four percentage points higher in the election.

Errors also affected lists aiming to surpass the electoral threshold.
Polls failed to predict the growth of the Green Left Alliance, instead suggesting that both the United States of Europe and Action would cross the threshold.

In the end, the Green-Red Alliance, at risk of not surpassing the 4% mark, obtained 6.78% of the votes, while Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda failed to secure a seat in the European Parliament.

Challenges Faced by Political Polls in the 2024 European Elections

The mistakes made by political polls in Italy during the European elections mirrored those made almost simultaneously in India.
Incorrect predictions about Prime Minister Modi’s victory reportedly caused a $386 billion collapse in the market in a single day according to Bloomberg.

As highlighted before the election, the caliber of candidates from the Democratic Party hinted at a better outcome than projected.
On the other hand, the 5 Star Movement, with less prominent candidates chosen through online voting, suffered at the polls, exacerbated by significant abstention, especially in the traditionally strong Southern regions.

The substantial abstention rates raised questions about the accuracy of the European election results.
Only 51% of eligible voters across the EU participated, revealing a significant disengagement with the political process.

Importance of Voter Turnout in European Elections

The partial data indicated low turnout rates in various EU countries.
While Belgium, due to concurrent local and national elections, had nearly 90% turnout, Hungary saw only 21%, Latvia 28%, and Bulgaria 34%.
Larger nations also struggled, with France at 51.5%, Spain at 49%, and Germany leading at 65%.

The implications of a European Parliament elected by only half of eligible voters raise concerns about its representativeness.
The widening gap between politics, polling, and actual voter sentiments underscores a disconnect that must be addressed to ensure genuine democratic representation and address citizens’ needs effectively.