New EU Regulation Makes Gasoline and Diesel Much More Expensive in Italy

The Future of Fuel Prices in Europe

Fuel prices in Italy, as in the rest of the European Union, are poised to make another significant jump, with potential increases of up to 40 cents per liter looming on the horizon.

Current Fuel Prices in Italy

Currently, the average self-service price is 1.87 euros per liter for gasoline and 1.73 euros per liter for diesel in Italy.
Recent fluctuations in fuel costs have been influenced by market turbulence and the chaos in the Middle East.

The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

Drivers should also start to take into account the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), a greenhouse gas quota trading system that has been in place within the European Union for some time.
The ETS aims to reduce the environmental impact of high carbon footprint sectors.

Initially focused on energy producers from fossil fuels, heavy industries (steel, iron, aluminum, cement, paper, and glass), and the civil aviation sector, the ETS will soon expand to companies operating in the transportation sector and buildings.

Impending Changes and Cost Increases

This shift will have a significant impact.
When this tax extends to transportation in 2027, the cost of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase significantly more than originally anticipated by Brussels, potentially being four times higher than the initial estimates.

The ETS and Rising Fuel Prices

Several analysts have recently sounded the alarm regarding an inevitable increase in gasoline and diesel prices in the EU due to the implementation of the new ETS.

Starting in 2027, the EU will measure CO2 emissions from buildings and road transport, introducing a new carbon pricing system, known as the Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2).
This new system, however, may lead to price increases higher than initially foreseen.

Initial estimations in 2023 assumed that prices would remain below 45 euros per ton of CO2.
However, current studies suggest prices could surge up to 200 euros per ton, translating to a potential increase of forty cents per liter of fuel.

To address this, the Berlaymont building has introduced a climate social fund of 87 billion euros, yet these funds may prove insufficient if the most pessimistic predictions come true.