Why is the European economy in crisis unlike the United States?
The performance of the European stock index, represented by the Stoxx600, continued to underperform compared to the American stock index, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent Eurozone crisis.
Despite the historic intervention of Mario Draghi with his "whatever it takes" in 2012, European fiscal policies have not undergone significant changes and the underperformance of European stock markets has continued to the present day.
While in the United States the technology sector, represented by the so-called Magnificent 7, has a considerable influence on the performance of the S&P 500, this sector is not equally represented in Europe.
However, analyzing the data, it emerges that even considering the sectors equally, the underperformance of the European index is marked, especially since 2009.
This indicates that the reasons for this performance gap must be sought elsewhere and not only in the lack of presence in the technology sector.
A comparison between the GDP growth of the United States and that of Europe reveals a first key to understanding the relative decline of the two stock market indices.
In recent years, US GDP has grown at a much faster pace than Europe's, thus reflecting the gap in stock market performance.
Since 2009, US GDP growth has far outpaced that of the eurozone: while in 2010 the real GDP of the eurozone amounted to $12.64 trillion, by 2022 it had risen to $14.14 trillion, recording a growth of 12%.
Over the same period, US GDP increased by 75%, from $14.5 trillion to $25.4 trillion.
However, this lack of growth in the European economy cannot be attributed solely to the structural differences of the two economies.
The answer must be sought in the fiscal policies adopted over the last fifteen years (2009-2024).
While the United States has implemented more dynamic fiscal policies, the euro zone has followed a policy of austerity, characterized by rigid control of public spending, without taking into account changing economic conditions.
This policy has generated a lack of capital investment, discouraged by a low return on investment, in turn caused by poor economic growth.
At the same time, the savings rate in the euro area has grown significantly compared to the United States, depressing demand and discouraging investment and increasing productivity.
Europe is now faced with a crucial choice: continue along the path of common investments, as indicated by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, or risk falling behind the United States both in terms of productivity and market performance equity.
The experience of Japan, which abandoned restrictive monetary and fiscal policies, highlights how a turning point can lead to an exit from a long economic stagnation.
On the contrary, China, with conservative growth policies, represents an example not to be followed.
If stock market indices are significant indicators of the economic conditions of a country or region, then it is clear which path Europe must take to reverse the current trend.
While the Japanese stock index has grown by 286% since 2010, the European one has only increased by 99%, while the Chinese one has remained stable for the last 14 years.
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