By 2030, the number of urban pets in China is expected to surpass the population of children aged under four.
According to Goldman Sachs, this trend could create a $12 billion market for pet food and other related products aimed at our furry companions.
The demographic situation in China is concerning, with the population having declined since 2022 and an increasing number of people choosing to remain childless.
The U.S.
investment bank forecasts that pet ownership will continue to rise in the coming years, as more young Chinese favor cats and dogs over starting families.
Valerie Zhou, a consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, noted, “We expect to see a stronger momentum in pet ownership due to a relatively lower birth rate and increased pet penetration among younger generations.”
China is projected to have over 70 million urban pets by 2030, nearly double the estimated 40 million children under four years old.
This data draws from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, highlighting a significant demographic shift.
In 2017, there were 90 million children aged zero to four compared to 40 million urban pets, illustrating a growing trend towards pet ownership.
Laura Luo, a 30-year-old cat owner, stated, “I think the increasing trend of pet ownership is linked to societal atomization,” spending approximately $70 monthly on cat food.
The Chinese pet food industry is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8%, from 51 billion Rmb in 2023 to 63 billion by 2030.
This optimism stands in stark contrast to weaker consumer demand in other sectors, which has struggled to recover post-COVID-19 pandemic.
How does this compare globally? Japan’s pet population stands at 20 million, four times that of children under four at 5 million.
In the U.S., the pet population vastly exceeds that of children of all ages, with estimates indicating between 84 to 89 million dogs and 60 to 62 million cats, compared to 73 million children.
China’s demographic challenges are further highlighted by data from 2022, revealing the first population decline since the early 1960s, exacerbated by a death count exceeding births by 2.08 million in 2023.
Some hospitals have even closed maternity wards due to low birth rates, decreasing from 807 in 2020 to 793 in 2021.
Lin Zhang, a professor at the University of New Hampshire, remarked on these trends, suggesting they may reflect similar patterns in developed nations in East Asia and Europe.
Experts note practical reasons for this shift towards pet ownership.
Zhang notes that pets have become cultural companions for unmarried or childless youths and older adults whose children live independently.
This change signifies a cultural transformation where pets provide companionship and meaning akin to relationships, moving away from viewing them merely as functional beings.
Zheng Mu, a sociologist at the National University of Singapore, asserts that pets fulfill the companionship and intimacy needs of young Chinese without the long-term obligations associated with child-rearing.
In conclusion, the rise in pet ownership over child births marks a significant demographic reality for China, indicating deeper societal transformations at play.
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