Italy’s Economic Recovery: Insights from 4 Graphs (Confindustria)

Flash Economic Outlook by Confindustria: What’s the Economic Situation in Italy?

The Flash Economic Outlook for September by Confindustria provides an insightful analysis of the current health of the Italian economy.
What recovery is taking shape in our country? The answer lies in detailed data covering the third quarter of 2024, complemented by four graphs illustrating the favorable and unfavorable conditions impacting our economy, alongside critical warning signs that should not be overlooked.

While inflation is continuing to cool off, granting relief to both families and businesses, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shown growth during the July-September period.
Yet, there are notable weaknesses: a slowdown in the service sector and a less severe decline in industrial output, as highlighted in the report.
Export performance is also concerning, hindered by weak demand especially from Europe, with Germany’s decline weighing heavily on sales.

The Economic Prospects for Italy According to Confindustria

The analysis released by Confindustria outlines various signals for Italy’s economic future.
A positive element is the consumer price index, where Italy notably recorded the lowest inflation rate at +1.1% (with core inflation at +2.1%), compared to Germany’s +2.0%, France’s +2.2%, and Spain’s +2.4%.

Industrial production, having shown signs of recovery for two months, fell by -0.9% in July, despite less dim prospects ahead.
The service sector experienced a decline in August, with growth forecasts appearing less robust.
Investments recorded an increase in the second quarter, yet exports lagged behind with declines of -1.8% for goods and -0.3% for services.

Confindustria also highlighted the ongoing positive trends in the Italian job market: employment rose by 56,000 in July, accumulating to 260,000 since January, while unemployment fell with 107,000 fewer individuals seeking work.
The unemployment rate stands at 6.5%, the lowest since March 2008.
However, a shadow remains as the number of inactive individuals has not declined, indicating that the workforce is not expanding.

Key Factors Shaping Italy’s Economic Future

The following four graphs summarize key factors that will significantly influence Italy’s economic future.

1. Weak Goods Consumption: Overall consumption of goods declined in the second quarter of 2024, contrasting with an increase in services.
2. Rising Gas Prices: The benchmark gas price in Europe has surged above crisis levels, with energy prices being particularly high in Italy due to limited diversification of energy sources.
3. Labor Market Dynamics: Although employment is on the rise, the figure for inactive individuals draws attention, indicating no decrease in the latest survey.
4. Declining ECB Rates: The European Central Bank has recently announced a rate cut of 25 basis points on September 12, positively impacting mortgage and loan rates in Italy.