Italy: Istat Forecasts for 2024-2025 Revealed: How Much Will the Country Grow?

Italy’s Economic Growth According to Istat Forecasts

Italy’s economic growth is under the scrutiny of Istat’s predictions: how will our country’s recovery fare this year and in 2025?

The recovery is expected, with a moderate acceleration of the Gross Domestic Product compared to 2023 according to the indications from the Institute of Statistics.
Inflation is seen returning towards the ECB target in the coming months.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Heterogeneous Growth Dynamics in Europe

In the background, geopolitical uncertainty and heterogeneous growth dynamics among European countries remain under careful observation.
What are all the Istat forecasts for Italy regarding economic recovery in the 2024-2025 period?

Italy under the Spotlight: All Istat Estimates on Growth

Istat’s economic forecasts for 2024 and 2025 depict a recovering Italy, albeit with cautious optimism.

The GDP is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025.
This year, it will be mainly domestic demand and net foreign demand supporting the Gross Domestic Product, while next year it will be primarily driven up by domestic demand.

The note states: “Private consumption continues to be supported by the strengthening of the labor market and the increase in real wages, but hindered by an increase in the propensity to save.
These dynamics will result in moderate growth (+0.4%) of household and NPISH consumption in 2024 and a subsequent acceleration in 2025 (+1%).”

Regarding other economic indicators, here are the updated forecasts as of June 6:

• Gross fixed capital formation: +1.5% and +1.2% respectively in 2024 and 2025
• Employment (measured in terms of ULA): +0.9% in 2024 and +1.0% in 2025
• Unemployment rate: 7.1% this year and 7.0% in 2025
• Household final consumption expenditure deflator: +1.6% in 2024 and +2.0% in 2025

Among Istat’s remarks, it is highlighted: “However, the slowdown in industrial production, excluding construction, and in the mark-up of the total economy in the first quarter of 2024 is a concern.
Significant reduction in housing investments is also expected during the current year due to the end of construction incentive measures…
Regarding the forecast scenario, in the 2024-2025 biennium, the Italian economy is expected to show a moderate but steady pace of expansion.”