What the Milan Needs to Qualify for the Champions League: Points Required for Success

What Does Milan Need to Do to Advance in Champions League?

Many AC Milan fans are likely pondering this question as we approach the third matchday of the newly formatted Champions League – a structure debuting in the 2024/2025 season.

In this new format, the 36 participating teams will not be divided into the usual eight groups.
Instead, they will compete in a single league table.
The top eight teams will qualify directly for the Round of 16, the clubs ranking from 9th to 24th will enter playoffs to secure their places in the knockout stage, while the remaining teams will face elimination from European competition altogether.

To maintain their journey in the Champions League, AC Milan must finish within the top 24 positions.
Securing a spot in the top eight would mean direct qualification to the knockout stages.

However, the start for the Rossoneri has been less than ideal, gathering no points after two matches — losing at home to strong rivals Liverpool and away to Bayer Leverkusen.

Points Needed for Milan to Progress

In this new tournament structure, each team will play eight matches, with four at home and four away, facing teams from each of the four seedings.

Teams will be ranked in a single table, and simulations suggest that a minimum of 16 points will likely be necessary to secure a top-eight position, though in some scenarios, 15 points might suffice.

To position themselves between 9th and 24th, earning the chance to compete in playoffs, as few as 9 points could be enough.
Based on these projections, Milan must win at least three of their upcoming six matches.

This task does not seem unrealistic given the relatively manageable upcoming fixtures:

  • Milan vs.
    Club Brugge
  • Real Madrid vs.
    Milan
  • Slovan Bratislava vs.
    Milan
  • Milan vs.
    Red Star Belgrade
  • Milan vs.
    Girona
  • Dynamo Zagreb vs.
    Milan

Apart from their match against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, the next fixtures appear to be within reach for Milan.
Starting with Club Brugge, the Rossoneri must earn points, or else they risk the specter of a shocking early elimination looming over San Siro.

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