The Next Wars Will Be Fought Over Water: 9 High-Risk Locations Worldwide

Water Wars: The Looming Threat

The notion of potential conflicts over increasingly scarce water resources is not a new one.
The diminishing availability of freshwater around the globe poses one of the most urgent challenges for environmental security this century.
This perspective comes from a military geography and environmental security expert who has conducted a recent study exploring how water scarcity intersects with geopolitics and the potential for violent conflicts in a warming world.

Francis Galgano, an associate professor at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, emphasizes that poor governance in highly vulnerable regions, particularly in transboundary river basins, combined with the worsening climate crisis, raises significant concerns.
A world map reveals nine areas marked as high-risk zones for potential conflicts over water control.

The Urgency of the Water Crisis

The prospect of water wars has evolved into a strategic issue concerning peace, security, and the survival of populations, as droughts and resource consumption escalate alarmingly.
Currently, it is estimated that half of the global population suffers from severe water scarcity for a part of the year.
Furthermore, the World Resources Institute warned last year that a staggering $70 trillion—representing 31% of global GDP—could be at risk of high water stress by 2050.

Hotspots for Potential Conflict

Galgano has pinpointed nine international river basins as hotspots where conflicts are already underway or where the likelihood of armed confrontation is significantly high.
Among these, the Nile in Africa and the Tigres and Euphrates rivers in Southwest Asia stand out, alongside the Helmand and Harirud rivers along the Afghanistan-Iran border.
These regions are depicted on a map featured in recent reports.

The Nile Basin Conflict

In the Nile basin, Galgano reports that riparian countries have yet to reach an agreement regarding a highly contentious dam.
Egypt has officially stated its willingness to engage in conflict if necessary.
For years, Egypt and Ethiopia have been embroiled in a dispute over the construction of a $4 billion hydroelectric dam by Ethiopia on the Nile’s main tributary, leading to fears that this dam could severely impact Egypt’s downstream water supply and irrigation needs.

The situation mirrors that of the Tigres and Euphrates rivers, which traverse the heart of the Middle East.
If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides to completely cut off water flows, both Iraq and Syria may face dire consequences.

Global Implications and Solutions

Emerging concerns over water wars have prompted the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to issue recommendations for both countries and individuals facing imminent water shortages.
Suggestions include safeguarding and restoring natural spaces, enhancing water use efficiency, tackling water loss, tapping into unconventional water sources such as wastewater treatment and reuse, and adopting integrated approaches in decision-making processes.

The Larger Picture

As the competition for water escalates in already arid regions, coupled with the exacerbating effects of climate change, alarming signs have emerged worldwide.
Protests in Mexico City against unprecedented water shortages, severe drought warnings affecting hundreds of cities in Iran, and potential credit risks in India due to water scarcity have drawn attention.

Control Risks reported a staggering 230% increase in monthly incidents tied to water-related social insecurity from early 2019 to May 2024.
These incidents, which encompass protests and violent unrest due to water shortages or pollution, indicate that the trend is unlikely to slow in the coming months.