Markets in full turbulence, with 5 key events that can still trigger volatility next week.
Between ongoing wars, geopolitical uncertainty, central banks called upon to decide how to balance the fight against inflation and the risk of recession, collapsing assets and fearful investors, global stock markets are experiencing complex and confusing days.
The week from October 30 to November 5 could be difficult again, with 5 economic and financial events of global significance.
What's about to happen? 1.
Federal Reserve Meets The US stock market will turn its full attention to the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 1, with investors eager to hear policymakers' views on the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates.
Futures linked to the main benchmark rate show that most traders do not expect the Fed to raise borrowing costs, although some believe another hike could come when the central bank meets again in December.
Signs that policymakers still intend to keep rates around current levels into next year could bolster bets on a further rise in Treasury yields, whose rise to their highest levels in more than 15 years has contributed to a sharp sell-off in the S&P500 .
The index has fallen more than 10% since hitting a yearly high in late July, although it is still up nearly 8% year-over-year.
read also The war in Israel has put the Fed and the ECB in trouble.
Now anything can happen 2.
Bank of Japan in the spotlight At next week's policy meeting, the Bank of Japan will face growing pressure to move further away from its controversial control over bond yields, amid rising global bond yields and persistent inflation.
A surge in US Treasury yields has pushed the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield close to the 1% upper limit set by the BOJ just three months ago, testing the bank's resolve to prevent an excessive market-driven surge in financing costs.
The BOJ is expected to keep its short-term rate target at -0.1% and its target for the 10-year JGB yield around 0% set by its yield curve control (YCC) policy.
Various factors complicate the timing of a BOJ exit from its policy of controlling and negative rates, which remains anomalous behavior among global central banks that have mostly raised rates aggressively to combat soaring inflation .
It should be noted that while rising Japanese rates could stem the yen's decline, it could lead to higher mortgage rates and financing costs for smaller businesses struggling to emerge from the pandemic.
Recent moves to loosen controls on yields have also revived interest in the asset class, raising fears that Japanese investors could start liquidating overseas investments if yields were more competitive in their home markets.
This could potentially be an earthquake for global financial markets.
3.
English crisis? The Bank of England meets on 2 November for the penultimate meeting of 2023.
Before the first MPC meeting of 2023, inflation was at 10.1%, GDP was showing 1% year-on-year growth and interest rates were at 3.5%.
Today, year-on-year growth has halved, rates are at 5.25% and inflation is still high at 6.7%, well above the 4.3% in the eurozone and 3.7% in the United States.
The BoE, like other central banks, will want to send the message that rates will not fall any time soon.
Right now, markets are pretty sure of at least one, if not two, cuts next year.
4.
Apple in the showdown The earnings season continues with the results of the tech giants in evidence, so far not completely brilliant.
Apple is set for another busy week of US corporate earnings, with the iPhone maker reporting its accounts on Thursday 2 November.
Shares of Apple, the largest company by market value, have helped push stock indexes higher this year along with shares of other large-cap U.S.
technology and growth companies.
But the stock has retreated sharply since the end of July, when the S&P 500 index hit its high for 2023.
read also Meta doubles profits.
Why does the stock drop? The results already provided by the megacaps have sparked mixed reactions, with the shares of Alphabet and Tesla plummeting following their respective reports.
Consumer spending habits will also be on display with other companies reporting including McDonald's on Monday, Caterpillar and Pfizer on Tuesday, Mondelez on Wednesday and Starbucks and Eli Lilly on Thursday.
In such an uncertain moment for growth, even in the USA which appears resilient, quarterly reports are becoming of crucial importance in offering an indication of what the near future will be like.
5.
Bitcoin, how long can the euphoria last? Bitcoin has been on a roll recently, with traders excited about the possibility that the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission could approve an application for an ETF.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin jumped following a false report that BlackRock's ETF application had been approved.
Last week, the listing of BlackRock's planned ETF on a clearinghouse's website sent speculators into a frenzy, even after the clearinghouse said it was just standard practice for pending claims rather than of a sign of any regulatory approval.
read also Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Cryptocurrency firm FTX collapsed a year ago, it is captivating digital currency watchers around the world.
Bitcoin will therefore remain the center of attention: rally or crash?
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