The price of Bitcoin once again surpassed all expectations, breaking above the $65,000 level.
The buying wave does not seem to have exhausted itself yet and the price of BTC/USD is heading towards its all-time highs.
Skepticism seems to have disappeared, leaving room for new hope: reaching the coveted $100,000.
Yet, some still persist in finding negative sides behind this price surge, predicting possible future declines.
What are the arguments for and against the hypothesis of the official exceeding of the highs of the year? Can the price of Bitcoin really reach a million dollars? The fourth Bitcoin halving will occur in 2024.
This represents clear support for the bulls' thesis.
However, Bitcoin's target price remains a question that everyone is actually discussing.
For this reason, it could be interesting to refer to mathematical models that in the past have often anticipated and described the price trend of Bitcoin well, even if they initially seemed unrealistic.
When you hear a target price of $100,000 for 2024 and $1 million for 2025 mentioned, your mind tries to bring the situation back to normal and excludes a surge of this kind a priori.
However, taking Stock to Flow, a renowned mathematical model in the cryptocurrency space, as a reference, we immediately notice that there could be a mathematical reason to support these numbers, however absurd they may seem.
Imagine yourself in 2015, with BTC worth just over $200.
If you had looked at Stock to Flow, you would have realized that the model indicated reaching $6000 in 2018.
Would you have believed it? Now, the same model, used by many to set their investment strategies, indicates a "fair" value of $100,000, but by the end of 2025 it identifies a target price of $1 million.
Why do many people think this is not possible? The main reasons, at the moment, are in the technical field and can be summarized with a question: «When Bitcoin will exceed, and if it does, its historical highs, investors, coming from two extremely positive years characterized by leverage rates and open interest sharply increasing, will they proceed to take profits? And, if so, what will be the extent of the price contraction?” Fundamentally, this is a typical «sell on news» situation; Bitcoin surpasses historical highs, the halving ends, thus triggering a fear & greed index at unimaginable levels and a generalized profit-taking.
This is what worries most analysts currently.
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