5 reasons for uncertainty weigh on the markets. Collapse coming?

Markets are about to enter another crucial week, with 5 potential reasons to expect volatility and shocks across the world's major stock indexes.
From geopolitical tensions with the escalation of the war in the Middle East increasingly threatening the world, to China's macro data that are of global interest, up to the quarterly results and political elections in various countries in a record-breaking 2024 for the call at the polls, investors have many reasons to fear losses and swings in asset prices.
In 5 points, here's what the markets fear most next week.
1.
USA in war? The week is ending with maximum tension in the Middle East and the next one could start in the worst way possible.
The news is that the USA is entering the conflict in a concrete way.
The US military launched airstrikes in Iraq and Syria on Friday, February 2, against more than 85 targets linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and militias it supports, in retaliation for last weekend's attack in Jordan that killed three US military.
The moves, which included the use of long-range B-1 bombers from the United States, were the first of a multi-layered response by President Joe Biden's administration.
More attacks will take place “in the coming days,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
At least in this first round, Biden still decided not to target Iranian territory, a move that would almost certainly have provoked a counterattack and risked war with a key adversary in the region.
The Syrian Defense Ministry said the "blatant air aggression" by American forces had caused the deaths of numerous civilians and soldiers and the wounding of others, as well as significant damage to public and private property.
“The occupation of parts of Syrian lands by American forces cannot continue…,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday, February 3.
The premises are not encouraging.
2.
Stocks: Is the rally over? If stocks outperformed bonds in January, the opposite could be true in February according to Reuters analysts.
Disappointed hopes of an early US rate cut and a renewed decline in US regional bank stocks – reviving memories of the March banking crisis – have suddenly cast a pall over equities.
Even though global stock markets closed last month higher, the S&P 500 closed with its steepest daily loss since September 21 on Wednesday, January 31, after the Fed meeting.
Read also Why NY Community Bancorp Bank Collapsed and what does the real estate bubble have to do with it? Government bond markets, whose yields were mostly rising at the end of January, were stimulated by the demand for safety and by growing signs that large economies – think of the US ADP employment index, the euro zone and the Chinese manufacturing activity – are weakening.
Speeches from several central bank officials could confirm this trend.
And the decoupling between bonds and stocks that began in early 2024 is expected to continue.
3.
Chinese disinflation: where are we at? China's inflation data on Thursday 8 February will be the next test of the health of its economy, plagued by persistently weak demand, a slumping real estate sector and fragile investor sentiment.
The bigger question will be whether deflationary pressures have intensified or not.
Chinese markets, meanwhile, have already had a negative start to the year.
The blue chip index (.CSI300) ended January down 6%, snapping a record six-month losing streak.
Beijing's recent support measures appear to have reassured investors, and expectations of further stimulus have sent the yield on China's benchmark 10-year government bond to a two-decade low.
But the scenario remains very uncertain for the dragon.
4.
Quarterly reports in focus The quarterly reporting season continues and the new financial numbers will help determine whether the rally that brought shares to record levels still has life left.
While most of the big tech companies have already released their accounts, a large group of S&P 500 companies will provide quarterly updates in the coming days, including Eli Lilly, Walt Disney, ConocoPhillips and PepsiCo.
According to LSEG data from Jan.
31, S&P 500 companies are on track to grow fourth-quarter earnings by 6.1% year over year.
So far, 80% have reported earnings above expectations, compared to the average rate of 76% over the past four quarters.
Investors will pay attention to information provided by companies regarding 2024, with earnings expected to grow faster than in 2023.
read also Amazon beats expectations, Meta triples profits and announces dividend 5.
Elections and turmoil The 2024 election cycle has just started and some of the world's most populous nations go to the polls next week.
General elections in Pakistan are scheduled for Thursday 8 February amid violence.
The country is facing an economic crisis with inflation nearing 30%, a weak currency and a government hanging on the International Monetary Fund's $3 billion bailout that expires in April.
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is considered the favorite, while his main rival, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, was jailed and was unable to run.
Voters in Indonesia, the world's third largest democracy, will go to the polls on February 14, with favorite Prabowo Subianto winning.
Meanwhile, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, who calls himself "the coolest dictator in the world," looks set to win a landslide victory on Sunday, despite a constitutional ban on immediate re-election, voters' concerns about the economy and criticism of his heavy repression of civil and human rights.