Gold or Silver: what should you bet on today? The substantial change in investors' expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy decisions led to a significant reduction in raw material prices, favored by a surge in the value of the dollar, represented by the DXY index.
Faced with gold's drawdown, many are wondering whether a new investment opportunity could be created, in view of possible cuts in Fed rates.
When discussing precious metals, there has always been a debate between gold and silver , often debating what the best choice might be when the prospects of rising precious metal prices materialize.
There are a few things you need to take into consideration before answering this question.
Is gold or silver better in view of a rate cut? We often talk about cutting rates, and this is rightly linked to the trend in the inflation rate.
When the Fed feels confident that lowering rates cannot compromise a new surge in inflation, it will do so, especially if the country's economic conditions begin to deteriorate.
Historically, this has depressed the value of the dollar, facilitating growth in the price of commodities valued in USD, such as precious metals: gold and silver.
But what happened in the past following rate cuts after a period of restrictive monetary policy? From 2004 to 2008, before the subprime mortgage crisis, rates rose, as did the price of gold and silver.
During the climb, silver gained about 171%, while gold gained about 67%.
From the moment of the first rate cut, with the arrival of the crisis, silver quickly gained 376%, while gold gained 167%.
However, these were substantial appreciations.
Over the long term, as the fight against recession continues, gold has outperformed silver.
Fast forward to 2018, and something diametrically opposite occurred: from 2016 to 2018, during rate hikes, in the Fed's first attempt at QT (Quantitative Tightening), gold rose by 18% while silver recorded a negative performance of -2%.
Then COVID arrived and monetary conditions eased to record levels, and gold began a diverging path from silver, appreciating to the point that, with the push on 2022 rates, XAU/USD got over the hump $2,000 technical.
Why does the market look favorably on silver? A fairly significant gap has arisen between gold and silver, which makes silver particularly attractive.
Despite the widespread perception of convenience in terms of price, silver has also become increasingly popular on an industrial level, especially with the technological boom of recent years.
Furthermore, given the current context, many expect that the Fed will proceed with the rate cut only when the economic data begins to show worrying signs, therefore in a context closer to recession, a period in which silver has historically always recorded a positive trend.
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