The most recent political survey by Termometro Politico is the first one conducted after the European elections, where Giorgia Meloni’s leadership was confirmed as she secured a significant number of seats in the European Parliament.
At the European elections, Fratelli d’Italia obtained 28.76% of the votes.
The current survey indicates a slight increase for Meloni, now standing at 29.4%, approaching the psychological threshold of 30%.
This demonstrates a rise in her popularity over the past year and a half of her tenure.
Within the governing majority, Forza Italia seems to have improved compared to the European elections, placing it as the third-largest party in the country, especially due to its alliance with Noi Moderati, which could become more structured.
On the contrary, the League seems to have decreased compared to the European elections, positioning it at the bottom among the governing parties.
Matteo Salvini, although seemingly able to maintain his position, is facing growing dissatisfaction among League supporters, particularly in the North.
Overall, the center-right coalition stands at 47.6% according to the survey, not far from an absolute majority.
This percentage, under the current electoral law, could grant the coalition two-thirds of the seats in both the Chamber and the Senate in case of political elections.
The Termometro Politico survey also seems to confirm the success of the Democratic Party, which obtained 24.1% of the votes on the 8th and 9th of June and is now indicated at 24.4%.
Elly Schlein appears to be the main rival of Giorgia Meloni, although the gap between them remains at five percentage points.
Conversely, the Five Star Movement is struggling, polling below double digits, which might prompt them to revise their regulations, potentially increasing the limit of two mandates to three under Giuseppe Conte’s leadership.
One of the surprises from the European elections was the success of the Green-Left Alliance, surpassing the 4% threshold.
According to the survey, they are now polling above 7%, a result that was unexpected before the European vote.
The situation within the former third pole remains uncertain.
With a 3% threshold in political elections and looking at the survey results, Azione seems to be above this mark.
Carlo Calenda appears to be at a crossroads: whether to continue independently, rejoin the center-left, or attempt to rebuild a common ground for moderates together with Italia Viva and +Europa.
Matteo Renzi has proposed a specific plan: a revival of the third pole led by a new figure, with Luigi Marattin of Italia Viva being discussed prominently.
However, there seem to be no current indications for a possible reunion between the former Prime Minister and Carlo Calenda.
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