Farewell to Flights: The Impact of Train Alternatives on Italy’s Travel Landscape

High-Speed Trains vs.
Short Flights: An Environmental Perspective

The growing idea of replacing short flights with high-speed train travel in Europe aims to reduce pollution and enhance environmental sustainability.
Countries like France have already implemented such measures, albeit in a limited scope, while other nations are contemplating similar policies.
In Italy, the discussion is ongoing, but the situation appears quite complex.

According to an analysis by ITSM (Iccsai Transport and Sustainable Mobility Center) at the University of Bergamo, only a small fraction of domestic routes could be swapped for train services without significantly increasing travel times.
The unique geography, existing infrastructures, and the strategic value of certain air routes complicate the implementation of such measures.

Which Routes Can Be Replaced?

ITSM’s research pinpointed just 12 internal routes in Italy that could feasibly transition to rail services, maintaining a travel time increase of under 20% compared to flying.
These crucial national routes included connections between major cities like:

• Rome Fiumicino – Milan Linate
• Rome Fiumicino – Milan Malpensa
• Milano Malpensa – Naples
• Rome Fiumicino – Genoa
• Bergamo – Naples
• Rome Fiumicino – Naples
• Milan Linate – Naples
• Bologna – Rome Fiumicino
• Rome Fiumicino – Florence
• Rome Fiumicino – Pisa
• Bergamo – Pescara
• Bergamo – Rome Fiumicino

Currently, these routes represent only 2.8% of all domestic flights planned for August 2024, based on data from Cirium, a specialized air transport analysis platform.

Environmental Gains and Geographic Challenges

In 2019, approximately 45,000 flights were conducted on these 12 routes, generating a mere 1.45% of Italy’s total aviation CO2 emissions.
The ITSM warns that eliminating such flights would yield minimal savings in CO2 emissions.

Moreover, there are concerns that passengers may opt for private cars instead, negating any potential environmental benefits.
While France has initiated similar restrictions, they apply to only a handful of routes.
Other European countries are also reassessing this approach.

Italy’s distinct geographic characteristics pose unique challenges.
Experts note that the country’s shape necessitates air travel for connectivity to major islands.
The “topography of the land” with mountainous regions, seismic activity, and areas prone to hydrological risks introduces complexities and costs when constructing new rail lines, further limiting the growth of high-speed networks in certain areas.

The Long-Term Costs and Environmental Impact

Transitioning from short flights to train services would incur significant long-term costs, primarily due to the need for new high-speed railway infrastructure.
The ITSM analysis suggests that such investments would only be justified if passenger volumes reached levels capable of covering operational costs.
Otherwise, the construction and maintenance expenses could overshadow the anticipated economic and environmental benefits.

Additionally, the environmental repercussions of constructing new rail lines can be substantial, demanding significant natural and energy resources.
If passenger traffic fails to meet expectations, the benefits from reduced flights could be counteracted by the environmental impacts associated with construction.
Consequently, careful planning is essential to ensure that costs do not exceed the gains, particularly in a country like Italy, where geographical and infrastructural challenges are daunting.

Final Thoughts: Is It Worth It?

The initiative to eliminate short flights in favor of trains presents an appealing concept, particularly regarding CO2 emissions and environmental sustainability.
However, in Italy, the outcomes may be limited.
The 12 potential substitute routes account for a mere fraction of the national air traffic, and any resulting emission reductions would be negligible.

Moreover, the risk of diverting passengers to less sustainable alternatives, such as private vehicles, could undermine the envisioned environmental benefits.
Economically, the impact would similarly be modest, as flights along these routes represent only a small percentage of domestic demand.

The main challenge for Italy lies in extending the high-speed rail network, given the region’s complex geographical conditions and the associated high infrastructural expenses.
In summary, the implications for Italy would involve modest emission reductions and slight shifts in the air transport sector, with the potential for increased road traffic.
A broader, more comprehensive strategy is necessary to effectively tackle emissions and sustainability in transportation.