Winter 2024-2025 Snowfall Predictions: What to Expect

Winter 2024-2025: A Return to Cold and Snowy Conditions

The winter of 2024-2025 is poised to bring a return to colder and snowier conditions across Italy, with intense episodes expected in various regions.
Forecasts suggest that specific climatic factors, including a weakened Polar Vortex and the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, may lead to abundant snowfall and below-average temperatures throughout the country.
Let’s delve into detailed analyses organized by geographical areas, the snowiest months, temperature forecasts, and periods most likely to experience snowfall.

The Snowiest Months: January and February Take the Spotlight

January and February 2025 are anticipated to be critical months for the onset of significant snowfall.
During this period, the Polar Vortex will weaken, allowing cold Arctic air to penetrate further south into Europe, reaching Italy.
Episodes of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), which disrupt the Polar Vortex, could deepen the cold wave and encourage snowfall in places typically less prone to it, such as southern coasts and major islands.

Significant snow is expected precisely between January and February 2025, as the weakened Polar Vortex and atmospheric dynamics will favor frequent incursions of cold air from the Balkans and the Arctic.
These conditions will likely cause snowfall at low altitudes, affecting Northern, Central, and Southern Italy.
The La Niña phenomenon, known for cooling surface waters in the Pacific, will indirectly contribute to increased atmospheric instability in the Mediterranean, promoting intense snowfall particularly in mountainous areas, with possible occurrences in flatlands as well.

Understanding La Niña

La Niña is a climatic phenomenon characterized by abnormal cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
This process occurs when the easterly trade winds intensify, pushing warm waters towards Asia and allowing colder waters to rise from the ocean depths.
The impacts of La Niña are felt globally, influencing atmospheric and climatic patterns, leading to colder and unstable weather conditions in various regions, including Italy.

Forecasts indicate that between November and December, snowfall across Europe will be below average; however, in Italy’s mountainous areas, such as the Alps, initial snowfall may occur as early as December.
Nonetheless, it will be from January onward that the likelihood of significant snowfall will substantially increase nationwide.

Temperature Expectations: Below Zero and Cold Waves

Winter 2024-2025 could be marked by temperatures significantly below the seasonal average, especially during January and February.
Predictions indicate that cold currents from Siberia and Northern Europe will lead to harsh conditions, with temperatures potentially dropping below -10°C in parts of Northern Italy.
Even Central and Southern Italy, including typically milder coastal regions, may experience substantial temperature declines, with freezing episodes in cities like Naples and Palermo.

The northern regions will be the most exposed to intense cold, particularly in the Po Valley, where the “cold air cushion” promotes the persistence of low temperatures.
Under these conditions, the Po Valley may experience frequent snowfall, especially in cities like Milan, Turin, and Bologna.
In the Central and Southern regions, snowfall might be occasional but still significant, particularly in hilly and mountainous areas.

Regions Most Impacted: Northern Italy and the Apennines Take Center Stage

Northern Italy is expected to bear the brunt of snowfall, with the “cold air cushion” typical of the Po Valley making snow likely at low altitudes.
Cities such as Milan, Turin, and Bologna may witness substantial snow accumulations, with temperatures often dropping below zero.
The center-western region will be particularly exposed, while the northeastern areas will see frequent incursions of cold air from the Balkans.

Central Italy will also experience snowfall, especially along the Apennines.
Cities like Rome and Florence could face occasional snowfall, particularly during the passage of disturbances from the Atlantic, accompanied by cold air.
The colder temperatures expected in January and February may facilitate the formation of snow even at lower elevations.

Though less frequent, snowfall may also impact Southern Italy and the major islands.
Regions like Sicily and Sardinia may see snowy episodes in mountainous areas like Etna and Gennargentu, while even coastal areas are not entirely exempt.
Snowfall on the coasts, such as in Cagliari and Palermo, while rare, could occur during significant cold air outbreaks.

Areas in Puglia and Basilicata, particularly the Gargano and Murgia, are particularly vulnerable to snowfall due to their altitude and the influence of cold air currents from the Balkans.
Episodes reminiscent of the harsh winter of 2017 may repeat, with heavy snowfall even on the Salento coasts.
However, meteorological fluctuations and La Niña’s influence render forecasts uncertain, leaving room for surprises across the country.