Polling Insights: Who Will Win the 2024 US Elections – Trump vs. Harris?
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2024 US Election Polls: A Shift in Dynamics with Kamala Harris
The landscape of the 2024 US presidential elections has dramatically changed with Kamala Harris entering the race.
Once considered a foregone conclusion for Donald Trump, the favor now leans toward the Democratic side as Harris’s campaign gains momentum.
When analyzing election polls, it is essential to focus not just on national percentages for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but rather on the pivotal seven battleground states that will be key in determining the outcome of the vote on November 5th.
This urgency arises from the electoral mechanism in the US, where citizens vote for 538 electoral delegates based on their state’s population—California, for instance, sends 54 delegates while Vermont sends just 3.
The victorious candidate in California secures all of its electoral votes, with exceptions in Nebraska and Maine where a district-based method is employed.
The Path to Victory: 270 Electoral Votes
To win the presidency, a candidate must garner at least 270 electoral votes.
Currently, Trump is positioned to secure 219 electoral votes, while Harris leads with 226.
The race tightens as attention turns to the 93 total delegates at stake in the six contentious states—Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Real Clear Politics shows a tight national race: Harris holds 48.1% to Trump’s 46.2%, suggesting she has surpassed him on a national level.
The individual battleground states reflect a similar intensity:
- Nevada: Harris 48.0%, Trump 47.4%
- North Carolina: Trump 47.9%, Harris 47.2%
- Georgia: Harris 48.3%, Trump 48.2%
- Wisconsin: Harris 48.2%, Trump 46.8%
- Arizona: Trump 48.0%, Harris 47.0%
- Michigan: Harris 48.0%, Trump 46.9%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47.2%, Harris 47.2%
In summary, Harris leads in Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump maintains his edge in North Carolina and Arizona, with Pennsylvania nearing a tie.
Forecasts and Reader Opinions
If the elections were held today based on current polling, Kamala Harris would emerge victorious with 273 electoral votes, illustrating how closely contested these seven states are.
Additionally, a non-scientific poll conducted by Money.it, asking readers to predict the winner between Trump and Harris, reflects the shifting dynamics.
In contrast to a previous poll where Trump led comfortably over Biden, the presence of Harris has resulted in a more balanced race.
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