The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: a Growing Threat to Energy Security

The Escalating Energy War between Russia and Ukraine

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase, with both sides targeting energy resources to cripple each other’s economies, leading to alarming consequences in global markets.

Attacks on Energy Facilities

The International Energy Agency has warned about Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, risking disruptions in petroleum product trade.
European gas prices have surged up to 10% after Russia targeted Ukraine’s gas and electricity infrastructure this week.

The Ukrainian army faces ammunition shortages, while the US is halting new funding, and European allies seek ways to supply more weapons.
The latest strategy involves systematic attacks on Russian energy facilities, despite concerns about oil and gas price effects.

The Growing Threat of an Energy Crisis

As reported by Bloomberg, the conflict is taking a dangerous turn.
Ukraine has targeted 14 major refineries and two smaller plants in Russia this year, successfully disrupting operations.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has launched three large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s electricity production and directed drones and missiles at key gas infrastructures for the first time since the invasion more than two years ago.

The Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy sites have been more extensive and better planned, disrupting production facilities and limiting energy supplies.
On the other side, Ukraine is using long-range drones to attack oil refineries, attempting to cut off fuel supplies to the military and impact Russian finances and population.

However, the conflict’s escalation poses a new energy crisis risk, potentially leading to price spikes.
Ukraine has targeted refineries with a combined capacity of about 3.4 million barrels per day, but some facilities have reserve or underutilized processing units, while undamaged plants are increasing productivity.

With drones reaching targets up to 1,200 kilometers away, analysts warn of potential risks to 19 Russian refineries with a combined capacity of 3.8 million barrels per day – over half of the nation’s capacity.
Extending drone range to 1,500 kilometers could put an additional 600,000 barrels at risk.

For Ruslan Pukhov of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the situation echoes the Iran-Iraq war in the ’80s, where cities and infrastructures became increasingly embroiled, posing a threat of a more devastating conflict for civilians and impacting global energy prices.